Working Paper — 2025
BASIC: Behavioural Analytics for Score Improvement in Credit
A Gradient Boosting Framework for Credit Score Prediction, Bureau Sensitivity Estimation, and Personalised Improvement Pathways in India
Shubham Arawkar·Pranav Murali·Anupam Acharya·TARA AI Labs
0.851
Month-ahead R²
21.41
RMSE (score points)
15.67
MAE (score points)
2.18%
MAPE
Paper Highlights
- Gradient boosting for month-ahead credit score prediction using bureau data
- Differential features capture changes in a borrower’s credit history
- Bureau sensitivity estimation explores how model predictions respond to inputs
- Personalised scenarios illustrate potential score improvement pathways
- Predictive simulations do not establish causal effects or guarantee score gains
- Reported evaluation results describe the paper’s dataset, not every deployment
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