Working Paper — 2025

BASIC: Behavioural Analytics for Score Improvement in Credit

A Gradient Boosting Framework for Credit Score Prediction, Bureau Sensitivity Estimation, and Personalised Improvement Pathways in India

Shubham Arawkar·Pranav Murali·Anupam Acharya·TARA AI Labs
0.851
Month-ahead R²
21.41
RMSE (score points)
15.67
MAE (score points)
2.18%
MAPE

Paper Highlights

  • Gradient boosting for month-ahead credit score prediction using bureau data
  • Differential features capture changes in a borrower’s credit history
  • Bureau sensitivity estimation explores how model predictions respond to inputs
  • Personalised scenarios illustrate potential score improvement pathways
  • Predictive simulations do not establish causal effects or guarantee score gains
  • Reported evaluation results describe the paper’s dataset, not every deployment

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